/ Go to the mediabankRice / Go to the mediabankInternationalIndiaAfricaSeveral years of abundant harvests had kept concerns regarding global rice production market at bay. However, in 2022, a whole concatenation of events – including inclement weather – occurred to threaten yields of this popular staple.The world will face the largest global rice deficit in 20 years in 2023, according to a report by Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research, cited by the media.The projected shortfall has been caused by plummeting rice production, and the inevitable result will be surging prices, with a vast part of the global population affected, it warned.The rice deficit for 2022/2023 is estimated at around 8.7 million tons, the report forecast. The last time there was such a dire shortfall of the globally popular staple was in 2003/2004, when there was a deficit of 18.6 million tons on the global markets.The price of rice, on average, was $17.30 per hundredweight (approximately 45kg) throughout 2023, the report added although it forecast that the price would drop to $14.50 per hundredweight in 2024.
"Given that rice is the staple food commodity across multiple markets in Asia, prices are a major determinant of food price inflation and food security, particularly for the poorest households," Charles Hart, Commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions was quoted as saying.
Fitch Solutions estimates that the global rice market will return to “an almost balanced position in 2023/24.”“We believe that the rice market will return to surplus in 2024/25 and then continue to loosen through the medium term,” the report stated. Prices were, accordingly, anticipated to lower by around 10 percent to reach $15.50 per hundredweight in 2024.
“It is our view that global rice production will stage a solid rebound in 2023/24, expecting total output to rise by 2.5 percent year-on-year,” the report summarized.
For the coming five-year period, the analysis estimated that India would be the “principal engine” of growing global rice production. Nevertheless, crops will still probably be at the mercy of the vagaries of the weather, as there are still forecasts of heatwaves through the second and third quarters of 2023, the report warned.India Limits Rice Exports Over Production Worries as Domestic Prices Soar9 September 2022, 08:00 GMT